Guadalajara Chivas 1–1 Club Queretaro

Guadalajara Chivas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Club Queretaro

J. Macías 32'

H. Silveira 58'

9/9/2020

Liga MX · Apertura - 9Estadio AKRON

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Guadalajara Chivas44%

×Draw26%

Club Queretaro30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guadalajara ChivasExpected goals in this matchClub Queretaro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.14

Guadalajara Chivas

1.46

Club Queretaro

1.14

Guadalajara Chivas creates 28% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.45

creates per match

1.06

1.21

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Guadalajara Chivas

1.45

Club Queretaro

1.06

allows per match

Guadalajara Chivas

1.21

Club Queretaro

1.46

+0.41scores more than expected

finishing

-0.66scores less than expected

finishing

Guadalajara Chivas+0.41scores more

Club Queretaro-0.66scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalajara Chivas ↓

Club Queretaro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Guadalajara Chivas or draw

70%

Guadalajara Chivas or Club Queretaro

74%

Draw or Club Queretaro

56%

Winning margin

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+

22%

Club Queretaro wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals

77%

Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals

43%

Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals

18%

Club Queretaro 1+ goals

68%

Club Queretaro 2+ goals

32%

Club Queretaro 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)

60%

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalajara Chivas at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.21 · 7 matches

Club Queretaro away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.45 + Club Queretaro defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.46

Club Queretaro attack 1.06 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Guadalajara Chivas scores more

44%

level

26%

Club Queretaro scores more

30%

Guadalajara Chivas at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Guadalajara Chivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

E. Vega

Guadalajara Chivas · F

7.9

Match Events

16'

29'

32'

42'

44'

46'

J. Madueña← J. Sánchez

58'

H. Silveira

66'

Jesús Ricardo Angulo Uriarte← U. Antuna

66'

J. Vázquez← F. Beltrán

70'

Hugo Silveira

79'

Gil Alcalá

79'

S. Sosa← A. Sepúlveda

81'

O. Peralta← J. Madueña

82'

J. López← J. Molina

85'

M. Rea← A. Luna

86'

J. Nava← E. Vera

89'

José MacíasGoal cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuadalajaraClub

Overview

69%Possession31%

17Total Shots13

3Corners5

7Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots13

4On Target4

8Off Target5

5Blocked4

10Inside Box5

7Outside Box8

Passing

69%Possession31%

503Total Passes217

432Accurate Passes149

86%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides3

Match Recap: Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Queretaro

Guadalajara Chivas and Club Queretaro drew 1-1 in Liga MX on September 9, 2020.

Goals: J. Macías (32'), H. Silveira (58').

Guadalajara Chivas controlled possession (69%) and registered 17 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio AKRON in Zapopan.

Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Queretaro — Liga MX 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Queretaro