Guadalajara Chivas 1–0 Club America: Result & Stats

Guadalajara Chivas

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Club America

C. Calderón 81'

11/26/2020

Liga MX · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio AKRON

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Guadalajara Chivas38%

×Draw27%

Club America35%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guadalajara ChivasExpected goals in this matchClub America

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.23

Guadalajara Chivas

1.28

Club America

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

1.45

creates per match

1.26

1.21

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Guadalajara Chivas

1.45

Club America

1.26

allows per match

Guadalajara Chivas

1.21

Club America

1.11

+0.41scores more than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Guadalajara Chivas+0.41scores more

Club America-0.16scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalajara Chivas ↓

Club America →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Guadalajara Chivas or draw

65%

Guadalajara Chivas or Club America

73%

Draw or Club America

62%

Winning margin

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+

17%

Club America wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals

72%

Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals

37%

Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals

14%

Club America 1+ goals

71%

Club America 2+ goals

35%

Club America 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)

52%

Club America (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalajara Chivas at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.21 · 7 matches

Club America away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.11 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.45 + Club America defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.28

Club America attack 1.26 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Guadalajara Chivas scores more

38%

level

27%

Club America scores more

35%

Guadalajara Chivas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Guadalajara Chivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

R. Gudiño

Guadalajara Chivas · G

8.7

Match Events

36'

Santiago Cáseres

52'

Jorge Sánchez

54'

O. Peralta← Á. Zaldívar

55'

C. Calderón← F. Beltrán

63'

F. Viñas← G. dos Santos

70'

N. Benedetti← H. Martín

70'

R. González← S. Cáseres

73'

Alan Torres← J. Angulo

79'

Oribe Peralta

81'

C. Calderón

83'

A. Ibargüen← J. Escoboza

83'

P. Aguilar← L. Fuentes

84'

A. Briseño← C. Antuna

90'

Andrés Ibargüen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuadalajaraClub

Overview

48%Possession52%

18Total Shots15

5Corners3

14Fouls17

Shots

18Total Shots15

2On Target7

12Off Target5

4Blocked3

12Inside Box6

6Outside Box9

Passing

48%Possession52%

306Total Passes332

242Accurate Passes257

79%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

7Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls17

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1