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Club America vs Guadalajara Chivas — Liga MX 2026

Club America
Club America
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Guadalajara Chivas
Guadalajara Chivas
9/14/2025Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 8Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

Club America50%
×Draw25%
Guadalajara Chivas25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club America
1.56
Guadalajara Chivas
1.03

Club America creates 51% more chances

Season form · 162 home / 146 away

creates per match

Club America
1.89
Guadalajara Chivas
1.18

allows per match

Club America
0.89
Guadalajara Chivas
1.23

finishing

Club America+0.00on par
Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club America ↓

Guadalajara Chivas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Club America or draw
75%
Club America or Guadalajara Chivas
75%
Draw or Guadalajara Chivas
50%

Winning margin

Club America wins by 2+
26%
Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Club America 1+ goals
79%
Club America 2+ goals
46%
Club America 3+ goals
21%
Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals
64%
Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals
28%
Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Club America (draw refunded)
66%
Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club America at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.89 · 162 matches

Guadalajara Chivas away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club America attack 1.89 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.56

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.18 + Club America defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Club America scores more
50%
level
25%
Guadalajara Chivas scores more
25%

Club America at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Club America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Club America 1–2 Guadalajara Chivas

Guadalajara Chivas beat Club America 2-1 in Liga MX on September 14, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes in Mexico City.