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Guacuano U20 vs Itapirense U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Guacuano U20
Guacuano U20
FT
0 – 2
Itapirense U20
Itapirense U20
6/14/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Municipal Carlos Nelson Bueno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Guacuano U2049%
×Draw21%
Itapirense U2030%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guacuano U20
2.04
Itapirense U20
1.56

Guacuano U20 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 17 away

creates per match

Guacuano U20
1.60
Itapirense U20
1.12

allows per match

Guacuano U20
2.00
Itapirense U20
2.47

finishing

Guacuano U20+0.00on par
Itapirense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 70Under: 3070%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 69No: 3169%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guacuano U20 ↓

Itapirense U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Guacuano U20 or draw
70%
Guacuano U20 or Itapirense U20
79%
Draw or Itapirense U20
51%

Winning margin

Guacuano U20 wins by 2+
28%
Itapirense U20 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Guacuano U20 1+ goals
87%
Guacuano U20 2+ goals
60%
Guacuano U20 3+ goals
33%
Itapirense U20 1+ goals
79%
Itapirense U20 2+ goals
46%
Itapirense U20 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Guacuano U20 (draw refunded)
62%
Itapirense U20 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guacuano U20 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Itapirense U20 away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guacuano U20 attack 1.60 + Itapirense U20 defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.04

Itapirense U20 attack 1.12 + Guacuano U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Guacuano U20 scores more
49%
level
21%
Itapirense U20 scores more
30%

Guacuano U20 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Guacuano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Guacuano U20 0–2 Itapirense U20

Itapirense U20 beat Guacuano U20 2-0 in Paulista - U20 on June 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Carlos Nelson Bueno in Mogi Guaçu, São Paulo.