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Guabirá vs Vaca Díez — Primera División 2019

Guabirá
Guabirá
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Vaca Díez
Vaca Díez
5/5/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 12Estadio Gilberto Parada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Guabirá61%
×Draw20%
Vaca Díez19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guabirá
2.12
Vaca Díez
1.08

Guabirá creates 96% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 16 away

creates per match

Guabirá
1.80
Vaca Díez
1.00

allows per match

Guabirá
1.16
Vaca Díez
2.44

finishing

Guabirá+0.00on par
Vaca Díez+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guabirá ↓

Vaca Díez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Guabirá or draw
81%
Guabirá or Vaca Díez
80%
Draw or Vaca Díez
39%

Winning margin

Guabirá wins by 2+
38%
Vaca Díez wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Guabirá 1+ goals
88%
Guabirá 2+ goals
62%
Guabirá 3+ goals
35%
Vaca Díez 1+ goals
66%
Vaca Díez 2+ goals
29%
Vaca Díez 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Guabirá (draw refunded)
77%
Vaca Díez (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guabirá at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.16 · 128 matches

Vaca Díez away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guabirá attack 1.80 + Vaca Díez defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.12

Vaca Díez attack 1.00 + Guabirá defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Guabirá scores more
61%
level
20%
Vaca Díez scores more
19%

Guabirá at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Guabirá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guabirá vs Vaca Díez

Guabirá and Vaca Díez drew 2-2 in Primera División on May 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Gilberto Parada in Montero.