Guabirá 4–1 The Strongest: Result & Stats

Guabirá

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

The Strongest

11/7/2023

Primera División · Round 24Estadio Gilberto Parada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Guabirá42%

×Draw25%

The Strongest34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuabiráExpected goals in this matchThe Strongest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.38

Guabirá

1.56

The Strongest

1.38

Guabirá creates 13% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 132 away

1.80

creates per match

1.60

1.16

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Guabirá

1.80

The Strongest

1.60

allows per match

Guabirá

1.16

The Strongest

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guabirá+0.00on par

The Strongest+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guabirá ↓

The Strongest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Guabirá or draw

66%

Guabirá or The Strongest

75%

Draw or The Strongest

58%

Winning margin

Guabirá wins by 2+

21%

The Strongest wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Guabirá 1+ goals

79%

Guabirá 2+ goals

46%

Guabirá 3+ goals

21%

The Strongest 1+ goals

75%

The Strongest 2+ goals

40%

The Strongest 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Guabirá (draw refunded)

55%

The Strongest (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guabirá at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.16 · 128 matches

The Strongest away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.32 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guabirá attack 1.80 + The Strongest defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.56

The Strongest attack 1.60 + Guabirá defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Guabirá scores more

42%

level

25%

The Strongest scores more

34%

Guabirá at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Guabirá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff