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Guabirá vs San José — Primera División 2019

Guabirá
Guabirá
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
San José
San José
5/21/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 26Estadio Gilberto Parada (Montero)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Guabirá60%
×Draw21%
San José19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guabirá
2.10
San José
1.11

Guabirá creates 89% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 54 away

creates per match

Guabirá
1.80
San José
1.06

allows per match

Guabirá
1.16
San José
2.39

finishing

Guabirá+0.00on par
San José+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guabirá ↓

San José →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Guabirá or draw
81%
Guabirá or San José
79%
Draw or San José
40%

Winning margin

Guabirá wins by 2+
37%
San José wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Guabirá 1+ goals
88%
Guabirá 2+ goals
62%
Guabirá 3+ goals
35%
San José 1+ goals
67%
San José 2+ goals
30%
San José 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Guabirá (draw refunded)
75%
San José (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guabirá at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.16 · 128 matches

San José away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.39 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guabirá attack 1.80 + San José defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.10

San José attack 1.06 + Guabirá defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Guabirá scores more
60%
level
21%
San José scores more
19%

Guabirá at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Guabirá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Guabirá 2–1 San José

Guabirá beat San José 2-1 in Primera División on May 21, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Gilberto Parada (Montero).