Guabirá 3–1 Real Oruro: Result & Stats

Guabirá

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Real Oruro

G. Peredo 90', 70', 13'

S. Zeballos 27'

5/10/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 7Estadio Gilberto Parada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Guabirá62%

×Draw19%

Real Oruro19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuabiráExpected goals in this matchReal Oruro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.41

1.27

Guabirá

2.41

Real Oruro

1.27

Guabirá creates 90% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 19 away

2.39

creates per match

1.37

1.17

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Guabirá

2.39

Real Oruro

1.37

allows per match

Guabirá

1.17

Real Oruro

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guabirá+0.00on par

Real Oruro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guabirá ↓

Real Oruro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Guabirá or draw

81%

Guabirá or Real Oruro

81%

Draw or Real Oruro

38%

Winning margin

Guabirá wins by 2+

40%

Real Oruro wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Guabirá 1+ goals

91%

Guabirá 2+ goals

69%

Guabirá 3+ goals

43%

Real Oruro 1+ goals

72%

Real Oruro 2+ goals

36%

Real Oruro 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Guabirá (draw refunded)

77%

Real Oruro (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guabirá at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

Real Oruro away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guabirá attack 2.39 + Real Oruro defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.41

Real Oruro attack 1.37 + Guabirá defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Guabirá scores more

62%

level

19%

Real Oruro scores more

19%

Guabirá at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Guabirá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

G. Peredo↳ Rafinha

27'

S. Zeballos↳ R. Orihuela

43'

Y. Vallejos

44'

C. Anez

45'

V. Melgar

46'

H. Salvatierra← J. Thomas

63'

L. Casavieja← J. Parada

63'

T. Chavez← Y. Baigorria

70'

G. Peredo↳ Rafinha

76'

J. Monsalve Montoya← Y. Vallejos

76'

R. Cuellar Orti← V. Melgar

80'

C. P. Arano← C. Barco

84'

L. Ali← R. Llano

88'

F. Gatti← F. Veloso

89'

G. Olguin← Rafinha

90'

G. Peredo↳ C. P. Arano

Guabirá

Real

25

Terceros

28

Alvarez

2

Vila

7

▼

Melgar

18

A

Orihuela

32

Zurita

20

Saca

6

▼

Thomas

19

▼

Vallejos

27

⚽

Zeballos

24

▼

Llano

12

Ferrel

21

Portillo

14

▼

Parada

6

Anez

15

A

▼

Rafinha

77

Ribeiro

17

▼

Barco

29

Masskooni

28

▼

Baigorria

7

⚽3

Peredo

9

▼

Veloso

Manager: Marcelo Fabian Straccia

63'▲L. Casavieja←▼J. Parada

63'▲T. Chavez←▼Y. Baigorria

80'▲C. P. Arano←▼C. Barco

88'▲F. Gatti←▼F. Veloso

89'▲G. Olguin←▼Rafinha

Guabirá substitutes

25Cuellar23Vargas97Gil30Gatti22Casavieja19Paiva10Sanchez37Chavez4Vaca32Olguin8Arano33Badani

Manager: Juan Marcelo Robledo Pizarro

46'▲H. Salvatierra←▼J. Thomas

76'▲J. Monsalve Montoya←▼Y. Vallejos

76'▲R. Cuellar Orti←▼V. Melgar

84'▲L. Ali←▼R. Llano

Real Oruro substitutes

12Roca5Alessandrini30Prieto23Villegas15Salvatierra9Montoya8Velasco26Calle97Orti10Ali