Guabirá 1–1 Club Destroyers: Result & Stats

Guabirá

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Club Destroyers

8/24/2019

Primera División · Clausura - 9Estadio Gilberto Parada (Montero)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Guabirá69%

×Draw18%

Club Destroyers13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuabiráExpected goals in this matchClub Destroyers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

0.87

Guabirá

2.31

Club Destroyers

0.87

Guabirá creates 166% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 26 away

1.80

creates per match

0.58

1.16

allows per match

2.81

creates per match

Guabirá

1.80

Club Destroyers

0.58

allows per match

Guabirá

1.16

Club Destroyers

2.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guabirá+0.00on par

Club Destroyers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guabirá ↓

Club Destroyers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Guabirá or draw

87%

Guabirá or Club Destroyers

82%

Draw or Club Destroyers

31%

Winning margin

Guabirá wins by 2+

46%

Club Destroyers wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Guabirá 1+ goals

90%

Guabirá 2+ goals

67%

Guabirá 3+ goals

40%

Club Destroyers 1+ goals

58%

Club Destroyers 2+ goals

22%

Club Destroyers 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Guabirá (draw refunded)

85%

Club Destroyers (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guabirá at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.16 · 128 matches

Club Destroyers away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guabirá attack 1.80 + Club Destroyers defence 2.81 → ÷2 → 2.31

Club Destroyers attack 0.58 + Guabirá defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Guabirá scores more

69%

level

18%

Club Destroyers scores more

13%

Guabirá at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Guabirá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff