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Guabirá vs Atlético Palmaflor — Primera División 2019

Guabirá
Guabirá
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Palmaflor
Atlético Palmaflor
7/15/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 19Estadio Gilberto Parada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Guabirá57%
×Draw22%
Atlético Palmaflor21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guabirá
1.92
Atlético Palmaflor
1.06

Guabirá creates 81% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 66 away

creates per match

Guabirá
1.80
Atlético Palmaflor
0.97

allows per match

Guabirá
1.16
Atlético Palmaflor
2.05

finishing

Guabirá+0.00on par
Atlético Palmaflor+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guabirá ↓

Atlético Palmaflor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Guabirá or draw
79%
Guabirá or Atlético Palmaflor
78%
Draw or Atlético Palmaflor
43%

Winning margin

Guabirá wins by 2+
34%
Atlético Palmaflor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Guabirá 1+ goals
85%
Guabirá 2+ goals
57%
Guabirá 3+ goals
30%
Atlético Palmaflor 1+ goals
65%
Atlético Palmaflor 2+ goals
29%
Atlético Palmaflor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Guabirá (draw refunded)
74%
Atlético Palmaflor (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guabirá at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.16 · 128 matches

Atlético Palmaflor away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.05 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guabirá attack 1.80 + Atlético Palmaflor defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.92

Atlético Palmaflor attack 0.97 + Guabirá defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Guabirá scores more
57%
level
22%
Atlético Palmaflor scores more
21%

Guabirá at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Guabirá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Guabirá 1–0 Atlético Palmaflor

Guabirá beat Atlético Palmaflor 1-0 in Primera División on July 15, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Gilberto Parada in Montero.