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Guabirá vs Always Ready — Primera División 2026

Guabirá
Guabirá
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Always Ready
Always Ready
12/2/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 25Estadio Gilberto Parada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Guabirá45%
×Draw24%
Always Ready31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guabirá
1.66
Always Ready
1.33

Guabirá creates 25% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 129 away

creates per match

Guabirá
1.80
Always Ready
1.50

allows per match

Guabirá
1.16
Always Ready
1.51

finishing

Guabirá+0.00on par
Always Ready+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guabirá ↓

Always Ready →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Guabirá or draw
69%
Guabirá or Always Ready
76%
Draw or Always Ready
55%

Winning margin

Guabirá wins by 2+
23%
Always Ready wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Guabirá 1+ goals
81%
Guabirá 2+ goals
49%
Guabirá 3+ goals
23%
Always Ready 1+ goals
74%
Always Ready 2+ goals
38%
Always Ready 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Guabirá (draw refunded)
59%
Always Ready (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guabirá at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.16 · 128 matches

Always Ready away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.51 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guabirá attack 1.80 + Always Ready defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.66

Always Ready attack 1.50 + Guabirá defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Guabirá scores more
45%
level
24%
Always Ready scores more
31%

Guabirá at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Guabirá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Guabirá 1–3 Always Ready

Always Ready beat Guabirá 3-1 in Primera División on December 2, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Gilberto Parada in Montero.