Gryf Wejherowo 1–0 Znicz Pruszków: Result & Stats

Gryf Wejherowo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Znicz Pruszków

J. Pek 29'

3/8/2020

II Liga - East · Round 22Stadion WKS Gryf Wejherowo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gryf Wejherowo25%

×Draw23%

Znicz Pruszków52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gryf WejherowoExpected goals in this matchZnicz Pruszków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.77

Gryf Wejherowo

1.14

Znicz Pruszków

1.77

Znicz Pruszków creates 55% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 69 away

0.82

creates per match

1.36

2.18

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Gryf Wejherowo

0.82

Znicz Pruszków

1.36

allows per match

Gryf Wejherowo

2.18

Znicz Pruszków

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gryf Wejherowo+0.00on par

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gryf Wejherowo ↓

Znicz Pruszków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Gryf Wejherowo or draw

48%

Gryf Wejherowo or Znicz Pruszków

77%

Draw or Znicz Pruszków

75%

Winning margin

Gryf Wejherowo wins by 2+

10%

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Gryf Wejherowo 1+ goals

68%

Gryf Wejherowo 2+ goals

32%

Gryf Wejherowo 3+ goals

11%

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals

83%

Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals

53%

Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Gryf Wejherowo (draw refunded)

32%

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gryf Wejherowo at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

Znicz Pruszków away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.45 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gryf Wejherowo attack 0.82 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.14

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.36 + Gryf Wejherowo defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Gryf Wejherowo scores more

25%

level

23%

Znicz Pruszków scores more

52%

Znicz Pruszków at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Znicz Pruszków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

18'

22'

29'

40'

40'

46'

A. Pyrka← B. Faliszewski

57'

N. Sroka← K. Baranowski

63'

63'

64'

66'

72'

M. Rackiewicz← P. Drobňák

72'

K. Skibko← K. Noiszewski

76'

T. Kolus← K. Przygoda

83'

J. Kreft← M. Gabor

84'

K. Skibko

86'

T. Kolus

90'

M. Slawek

Gryf

Znicz

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: L. Kowalski

57'▲N. Sroka←▼K. Baranowski

76'▲T. Kolus←▼K. Przygoda

83'▲J. Kreft←▼M. Gabor

Gryf Wejherowo substitutes

SrokaKolusKreft

Manager: P. Mosor

46'▲A. Pyrka←▼B. Faliszewski

72'▲M. Rackiewicz←▼P. Drobňák

72'▲K. Skibko←▼K. Noiszewski

Znicz Pruszków substitutes

PyrkaRackiewiczSkibko