Gryf Wejherowo 1–2 Radunia Stężyca: Result & Stats

Gryf Wejherowo

FT

1 – 2

Radunia Stężyca

8/15/2020

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Stadion WKS Gryf Wejherowo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gryf Wejherowo17%

×Draw18%

Radunia Stężyca65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gryf WejherowoExpected goals in this matchRadunia Stężyca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

2.41

Gryf Wejherowo

1.15

Radunia Stężyca

2.41

Radunia Stężyca creates 110% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.47

creates per match

3.06

1.76

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Gryf Wejherowo

1.47

Radunia Stężyca

3.06

allows per match

Gryf Wejherowo

1.76

Radunia Stężyca

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gryf Wejherowo+0.00on par

Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gryf Wejherowo ↓

Radunia Stężyca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Gryf Wejherowo or draw

35%

Gryf Wejherowo or Radunia Stężyca

82%

Draw or Radunia Stężyca

83%

Winning margin

Gryf Wejherowo wins by 2+

6%

Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

Gryf Wejherowo 1+ goals

68%

Gryf Wejherowo 2+ goals

32%

Gryf Wejherowo 3+ goals

11%

Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals

91%

Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals

69%

Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Gryf Wejherowo (draw refunded)

21%

Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gryf Wejherowo at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Radunia Stężyca away — creates 3.06, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gryf Wejherowo attack 1.47 + Radunia Stężyca defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.15

Radunia Stężyca attack 3.06 + Gryf Wejherowo defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Gryf Wejherowo scores more

17%

level

18%

Radunia Stężyca scores more

65%

Radunia Stężyca at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Radunia Stężyca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff