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Grünwald vs Türkspor Augsburg — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Grünwald
Grünwald
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Türkspor Augsburg
Türkspor Augsburg
H. Boubacar 85'
M. Kosuch 84'
B. Fink 79'
G. Wanzeck 58'
D. Halbich 35', 12' (pen)
3/1/2025Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 11Grünwalder Freizeitpark Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Grünwald55%
×Draw21%
Türkspor Augsburg25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grünwald
2.17
Türkspor Augsburg
1.40

Grünwald creates 55% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 66 away

creates per match

Grünwald
2.13
Türkspor Augsburg
0.86

allows per match

Grünwald
1.94
Türkspor Augsburg
2.20

finishing

Grünwald+0.00on par
Türkspor Augsburg+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grünwald ↓

Türkspor Augsburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Grünwald or draw
75%
Grünwald or Türkspor Augsburg
79%
Draw or Türkspor Augsburg
45%

Winning margin

Grünwald wins by 2+
33%
Türkspor Augsburg wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Grünwald 1+ goals
89%
Grünwald 2+ goals
64%
Grünwald 3+ goals
36%
Türkspor Augsburg 1+ goals
75%
Türkspor Augsburg 2+ goals
41%
Türkspor Augsburg 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Grünwald (draw refunded)
69%
Türkspor Augsburg (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grünwald at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

Türkspor Augsburg away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.20 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grünwald attack 2.13 + Türkspor Augsburg defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.17

Türkspor Augsburg attack 0.86 + Grünwald defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Grünwald scores more
55%
level
21%
Türkspor Augsburg scores more
25%

Grünwald at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Grünwald will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
E. Kurt
12'
D. HalbichPenalty
35'
D. Halbich
58'
G. Wanzeck
79'
B. Fink
84'
M. Kosuch
85'
H. Boubacar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grünwald vs Türkspor Augsburg

Grünwald beat Türkspor Augsburg 6-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on March 1, 2025.

Goals: D. Halbich (12' pen, 35'), G. Wanzeck (58'), B. Fink (79'), M. Kosuch (84'), H. Boubacar (85').

The match was played at Grünwalder Freizeitpark Kunstrasen in Grünwald.