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Grünwald vs Schalding-Heining — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Grünwald
Grünwald
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Schalding-Heining
Schalding-Heining
3/15/2025Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 25Grünwalder Freizeitpark Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Grünwald40%
×Draw22%
Schalding-Heining38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grünwald
1.87
Schalding-Heining
1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 49 away

creates per match

Grünwald
2.13
Schalding-Heining
1.67

allows per match

Grünwald
1.94
Schalding-Heining
1.61

finishing

Grünwald+0.00on par
Schalding-Heining+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grünwald ↓

Schalding-Heining →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Grünwald or draw
62%
Grünwald or Schalding-Heining
78%
Draw or Schalding-Heining
60%

Winning margin

Grünwald wins by 2+
22%
Schalding-Heining wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Grünwald 1+ goals
85%
Grünwald 2+ goals
56%
Grünwald 3+ goals
29%
Schalding-Heining 1+ goals
83%
Schalding-Heining 2+ goals
54%
Schalding-Heining 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Grünwald (draw refunded)
52%
Schalding-Heining (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grünwald at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

Schalding-Heining away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.61 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grünwald attack 2.13 + Schalding-Heining defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.87

Schalding-Heining attack 1.67 + Grünwald defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Grünwald scores more
40%
level
22%
Schalding-Heining scores more
38%

Grünwald at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Grünwald will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Süd: Grünwald 4–3 Schalding-Heining

Grünwald beat Schalding-Heining 4-3 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Grünwalder Freizeitpark Kunstrasen in Grünwald.