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Grün Weiß Micheldorf vs Union St. Florian — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Grün Weiß Micheldorf
Grün Weiß Micheldorf
CANC
15:00
Union St. Florian
Union St. Florian
5/15/2021Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 26cool & fair Arena Micheldorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Grün Weiß Micheldorf52%
×Draw22%
Union St. Florian26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grün Weiß Micheldorf
1.96
Union St. Florian
1.31

Grün Weiß Micheldorf creates 50% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 29 away

creates per match

Grün Weiß Micheldorf
1.91
Union St. Florian
1.10

allows per match

Grün Weiß Micheldorf
1.53
Union St. Florian
2.00

finishing

Grün Weiß Micheldorf+0.00on par
Union St. Florian+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grün Weiß Micheldorf ↓

Union St. Florian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Grün Weiß Micheldorf or draw
74%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf or Union St. Florian
78%
Draw or Union St. Florian
48%

Winning margin

Grün Weiß Micheldorf wins by 2+
30%
Union St. Florian wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Grün Weiß Micheldorf 1+ goals
86%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf 2+ goals
58%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf 3+ goals
31%
Union St. Florian 1+ goals
73%
Union St. Florian 2+ goals
38%
Union St. Florian 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Grün Weiß Micheldorf (draw refunded)
67%
Union St. Florian (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grün Weiß Micheldorf at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.53 · 89 matches

Union St. Florian away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grün Weiß Micheldorf attack 1.91 + Union St. Florian defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.96

Union St. Florian attack 1.10 + Grün Weiß Micheldorf defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Grün Weiß Micheldorf scores more
52%
level
22%
Union St. Florian scores more
26%

Grün Weiß Micheldorf at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Grün Weiß Micheldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Grün Weiß Micheldorf face Union St. Florian (Landesliga - Oberosterreich)

Landesliga - Oberosterreich returns with Grün Weiß Micheldorf hosting Union St. Florian. Match starts May 15, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Grün Weiß Micheldorf host Union St. Florian at cool & fair Arena Micheldorf.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.