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Grün Weiß Micheldorf vs Union Rohrbach Berg — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Grün Weiß Micheldorf
Grün Weiß Micheldorf
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Union Rohrbach Berg
Union Rohrbach Berg
10/25/2024Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 13Monoflo Arena Micheldorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Grün Weiß Micheldorf58%
×Draw21%
Union Rohrbach Berg21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grün Weiß Micheldorf
2.02
Union Rohrbach Berg
1.13

Grün Weiß Micheldorf creates 79% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 15 away

creates per match

Grün Weiß Micheldorf
1.91
Union Rohrbach Berg
0.73

allows per match

Grün Weiß Micheldorf
1.53
Union Rohrbach Berg
2.13

finishing

Grün Weiß Micheldorf+0.00on par
Union Rohrbach Berg+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grün Weiß Micheldorf ↓

Union Rohrbach Berg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Grün Weiß Micheldorf or draw
79%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf or Union Rohrbach Berg
79%
Draw or Union Rohrbach Berg
42%

Winning margin

Grün Weiß Micheldorf wins by 2+
35%
Union Rohrbach Berg wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Grün Weiß Micheldorf 1+ goals
87%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf 2+ goals
60%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf 3+ goals
33%
Union Rohrbach Berg 1+ goals
68%
Union Rohrbach Berg 2+ goals
31%
Union Rohrbach Berg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Grün Weiß Micheldorf (draw refunded)
73%
Union Rohrbach Berg (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grün Weiß Micheldorf at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.53 · 89 matches

Union Rohrbach Berg away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grün Weiß Micheldorf attack 1.91 + Union Rohrbach Berg defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.02

Union Rohrbach Berg attack 0.73 + Grün Weiß Micheldorf defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Grün Weiß Micheldorf scores more
58%
level
21%
Union Rohrbach Berg scores more
21%

Grün Weiß Micheldorf at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Grün Weiß Micheldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grün Weiß Micheldorf vs Union Rohrbach Berg

Grün Weiß Micheldorf beat Union Rohrbach Berg 3-1 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on October 25, 2024.

The match was played at Monoflo Arena Micheldorf in Micheldorf.