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Grün Weiß Micheldorf vs St. Valentin — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Grün Weiß Micheldorf
Grün Weiß Micheldorf
FT
0 – 2
St. Valentin
St. Valentin
3/11/2022Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 17Haidlmair Arena Micheldorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Grün Weiß Micheldorf50%
×Draw22%
St. Valentin29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grün Weiß Micheldorf
1.98
St. Valentin
1.46

Grün Weiß Micheldorf creates 36% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 73 away

creates per match

Grün Weiß Micheldorf
1.91
St. Valentin
1.40

allows per match

Grün Weiß Micheldorf
1.53
St. Valentin
2.04

finishing

Grün Weiß Micheldorf+0.00on par
St. Valentin+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grün Weiß Micheldorf ↓

St. Valentin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Grün Weiß Micheldorf or draw
71%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf or St. Valentin
78%
Draw or St. Valentin
50%

Winning margin

Grün Weiß Micheldorf wins by 2+
28%
St. Valentin wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Grün Weiß Micheldorf 1+ goals
86%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf 2+ goals
59%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf 3+ goals
31%
St. Valentin 1+ goals
77%
St. Valentin 2+ goals
43%
St. Valentin 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Grün Weiß Micheldorf (draw refunded)
63%
St. Valentin (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grün Weiß Micheldorf at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.53 · 89 matches

St. Valentin away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.04 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grün Weiß Micheldorf attack 1.91 + St. Valentin defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.98

St. Valentin attack 1.40 + Grün Weiß Micheldorf defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Grün Weiß Micheldorf scores more
50%
level
22%
St. Valentin scores more
29%

Grün Weiß Micheldorf at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Grün Weiß Micheldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Oberosterreich: Grün Weiß Micheldorf 0–2 St. Valentin

St. Valentin beat Grün Weiß Micheldorf 2-0 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on March 11, 2022.

The match was played at Haidlmair Arena Micheldorf in Micheldorf.