Grün Weiß Micheldorf 1–3 Mondsee: Result & Stats

Grün Weiß Micheldorf

FT

1 – 3

Mondsee

3/23/2024

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 19Haidlmair Arena Micheldorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Grün Weiß Micheldorf44%

×Draw22%

Mondsee34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Grün Weiß MicheldorfExpected goals in this matchMondsee

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.62

Grün Weiß Micheldorf

1.87

Mondsee

1.62

Grün Weiß Micheldorf creates 15% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 90 away

1.91

creates per match

1.71

1.53

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Grün Weiß Micheldorf

1.91

Mondsee

1.71

allows per match

Grün Weiß Micheldorf

1.53

Mondsee

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grün Weiß Micheldorf+0.00on par

Mondsee+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grün Weiß Micheldorf ↓

Mondsee →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Grün Weiß Micheldorf or draw

66%

Grün Weiß Micheldorf or Mondsee

78%

Draw or Mondsee

56%

Winning margin

Grün Weiß Micheldorf wins by 2+

24%

Mondsee wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Grün Weiß Micheldorf 1+ goals

85%

Grün Weiß Micheldorf 2+ goals

56%

Grün Weiß Micheldorf 3+ goals

29%

Mondsee 1+ goals

80%

Mondsee 2+ goals

48%

Mondsee 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Grün Weiß Micheldorf (draw refunded)

57%

Mondsee (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grün Weiß Micheldorf at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.53 · 89 matches

Mondsee away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.83 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grün Weiß Micheldorf attack 1.91 + Mondsee defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.87

Mondsee attack 1.71 + Grün Weiß Micheldorf defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Grün Weiß Micheldorf scores more

44%

level

22%

Mondsee scores more

34%

Grün Weiß Micheldorf at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Grün Weiß Micheldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff