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Grün Weiß Micheldorf vs Donau Linz — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Grün Weiß Micheldorf
Grün Weiß Micheldorf
CANC
14:30
Donau Linz
Donau Linz
3/27/2021Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 19cool & fair Arena Micheldorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Grün Weiß Micheldorf62%
×Draw19%
Donau Linz19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grün Weiß Micheldorf
2.39
Donau Linz
1.28

Grün Weiß Micheldorf creates 87% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 30 away

creates per match

Grün Weiß Micheldorf
1.91
Donau Linz
1.03

allows per match

Grün Weiß Micheldorf
1.53
Donau Linz
2.87

finishing

Grün Weiß Micheldorf+0.00on par
Donau Linz+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grün Weiß Micheldorf ↓

Donau Linz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Grün Weiß Micheldorf or draw
81%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf or Donau Linz
81%
Draw or Donau Linz
38%

Winning margin

Grün Weiß Micheldorf wins by 2+
40%
Donau Linz wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Grün Weiß Micheldorf 1+ goals
91%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf 2+ goals
69%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf 3+ goals
42%
Donau Linz 1+ goals
72%
Donau Linz 2+ goals
37%
Donau Linz 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Grün Weiß Micheldorf (draw refunded)
76%
Donau Linz (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grün Weiß Micheldorf at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.53 · 89 matches

Donau Linz away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grün Weiß Micheldorf attack 1.91 + Donau Linz defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.39

Donau Linz attack 1.03 + Grün Weiß Micheldorf defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Grün Weiß Micheldorf scores more
62%
level
19%
Donau Linz scores more
19%

Grün Weiß Micheldorf at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Grün Weiß Micheldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Grün Weiß Micheldorf vs Donau Linz — Match Preview

Grün Weiß Micheldorf face Donau Linz on March 27, 2021 in this Landesliga - Oberosterreich fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Grün Weiß Micheldorf host Donau Linz at cool & fair Arena Micheldorf.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.