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Grün Weiß Micheldorf vs Bad Ischl — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Grün Weiß Micheldorf
Grün Weiß Micheldorf
FT
3 – 2
Bad Ischl
Bad Ischl
9/27/2024Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 9Monoflo Arena Micheldorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Grün Weiß Micheldorf55%
×Draw20%
Bad Ischl25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grün Weiß Micheldorf
2.27
Bad Ischl
1.48

Grün Weiß Micheldorf creates 53% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 60 away

creates per match

Grün Weiß Micheldorf
1.91
Bad Ischl
1.43

allows per match

Grün Weiß Micheldorf
1.53
Bad Ischl
2.62

finishing

Grün Weiß Micheldorf+0.00on par
Bad Ischl+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grün Weiß Micheldorf ↓

Bad Ischl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Grün Weiß Micheldorf or draw
75%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf or Bad Ischl
80%
Draw or Bad Ischl
45%

Winning margin

Grün Weiß Micheldorf wins by 2+
34%
Bad Ischl wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Grün Weiß Micheldorf 1+ goals
90%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf 2+ goals
66%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf 3+ goals
39%
Bad Ischl 1+ goals
77%
Bad Ischl 2+ goals
43%
Bad Ischl 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Grün Weiß Micheldorf (draw refunded)
69%
Bad Ischl (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grün Weiß Micheldorf at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.53 · 89 matches

Bad Ischl away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.62 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grün Weiß Micheldorf attack 1.91 + Bad Ischl defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.27

Bad Ischl attack 1.43 + Grün Weiß Micheldorf defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Grün Weiß Micheldorf scores more
55%
level
20%
Bad Ischl scores more
25%

Grün Weiß Micheldorf at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Grün Weiß Micheldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Oberosterreich: Grün Weiß Micheldorf 3–2 Bad Ischl

Grün Weiß Micheldorf beat Bad Ischl 3-2 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on September 27, 2024.

The match was played at Monoflo Arena Micheldorf in Micheldorf.