Grulla Morioka 0–1 Thespakusatsu Gunma

Grulla Morioka

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Thespakusatsu Gunma

S. Hiramatsu 89'

4/9/2022

J2 League · Round 9Hokujosogoundo Koen Kitakami Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Grulla Morioka31%

×Draw27%

Thespakusatsu Gunma42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Grulla MoriokaExpected goals in this matchThespakusatsu Gunma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.38

Grulla Morioka

1.15

Thespakusatsu Gunma

1.38

Thespakusatsu Gunma creates 20% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 104 away

0.76

creates per match

0.95

1.81

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Grulla Morioka

0.76

Thespakusatsu Gunma

0.95

allows per match

Grulla Morioka

1.81

Thespakusatsu Gunma

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grulla Morioka+0.00on par

Thespakusatsu Gunma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grulla Morioka ↓

Thespakusatsu Gunma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Grulla Morioka or draw

58%

Grulla Morioka or Thespakusatsu Gunma

73%

Draw or Thespakusatsu Gunma

69%

Winning margin

Grulla Morioka wins by 2+

13%

Thespakusatsu Gunma wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Grulla Morioka 1+ goals

68%

Grulla Morioka 2+ goals

32%

Grulla Morioka 3+ goals

11%

Thespakusatsu Gunma 1+ goals

75%

Thespakusatsu Gunma 2+ goals

40%

Thespakusatsu Gunma 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Grulla Morioka (draw refunded)

43%

Thespakusatsu Gunma (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grulla Morioka at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

Thespakusatsu Gunma away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.53 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grulla Morioka attack 0.76 + Thespakusatsu Gunma defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.15

Thespakusatsu Gunma attack 0.95 + Grulla Morioka defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Grulla Morioka scores more

31%

level

27%

Thespakusatsu Gunma scores more

42%

Thespakusatsu Gunma at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Thespakusatsu Gunma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

58'

61'

70'

70'

70'

P. Tabinas← T. Kagami

72'

S. Hiramatsu← S. Fukahori

72'

A. Yamanaka← T. Amagasa

79'

K. Okumura← Y. Iwakami

79'

S. Kitagawa← Y. Kawakami

82'

Y. Okuyama← S. Kiri

86'

S. Kitagawa

89'

S. Hiramatsu↳ Koki Kazama

Grulla

Thespakusatsu

21

Kushibiki

3

Hatao

25

Kojima

4

▼

Kawakami

2

Shirowa

8

▼

Iwakami

15

A

Kazama

10

▼

Tanaka

7

Kato

38

▼

Amagasa

11

▼

41

17

4

6

36

15

▼

Kagami

28

Masuda

33

▼

Yuge

45

▼

Wada

11

Brenner

13

▼

Shikama

Manager: Y. Akita

46'▲S. Kiri←▼Y. Shikama

70'▲A. Nakamura←▼M. Wada

70'▲H. Komatsu←▼T. Yuge

70'▲P. Tabinas←▼T. Kagami

82'▲Y. Okuyama←▼S. Kiri

Grulla Morioka substitutes

42Kiri46Nakamura14Komatsu26Tabinas22Okuyama19Matsuyama37Fukagawa

Manager: T. Otsuki

61'▲T. Uchida←▼T. Tanaka

72'▲S. Hiramatsu←▼S. Fukahori

72'▲A. Yamanaka←▼T. Amagasa

79'▲K. Okumura←▼Y. Iwakami

79'▲S. Kitagawa←▼Y. Kawakami

Thespakusatsu Gunma substitutes

6Uchida23Hiramatsu17Yamanaka27Okumura9Kitagawa44Yamada32Watanabe

J2 League: Grulla Morioka 0–1 Thespakusatsu Gunma

Thespakusatsu Gunma beat Grulla Morioka 1-0 in J2 League on April 9, 2022.

Goals: S. Hiramatsu (89').

The match was played at Hokujosogoundo Koen Kitakami Field in Kitakami.

Grulla Morioka vs Thespakusatsu Gunma — J2 League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

J2 League: Grulla Morioka 0–1 Thespakusatsu Gunma