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Groupe Bazano vs Renaissance — Ligue 1 2019

Groupe Bazano
Groupe Bazano
FT
4 – 2
Renaissance
Renaissance
5/26/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 23Stade du TP Mazembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Groupe Bazano43%
×Draw28%
Renaissance28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Groupe Bazano
1.28
Renaissance
0.98

Groupe Bazano creates 31% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 69 away

creates per match

Groupe Bazano
1.28
Renaissance
0.77

allows per match

Groupe Bazano
1.19
Renaissance
1.28

finishing

Groupe Bazano+0.00on par
Renaissance+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groupe Bazano ↓

Renaissance →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Groupe Bazano or draw
72%
Groupe Bazano or Renaissance
72%
Draw or Renaissance
57%

Winning margin

Groupe Bazano wins by 2+
20%
Renaissance wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Groupe Bazano 1+ goals
72%
Groupe Bazano 2+ goals
37%
Groupe Bazano 3+ goals
14%
Renaissance 1+ goals
62%
Renaissance 2+ goals
26%
Renaissance 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Groupe Bazano (draw refunded)
60%
Renaissance (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groupe Bazano at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.19 · 75 matches

Renaissance away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.28 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groupe Bazano attack 1.28 + Renaissance defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.28

Renaissance attack 0.77 + Groupe Bazano defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Groupe Bazano scores more
43%
level
28%
Renaissance scores more
28%

Groupe Bazano at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Groupe Bazano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Groupe Bazano 4–2 Renaissance

Groupe Bazano beat Renaissance 4-2 in Ligue 1 on May 26, 2021.

The match was played at Stade du TP Mazembe in Lubumbashi.