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Groupe Bazano vs Motema Pembe — Ligue 1 2019

Groupe Bazano
Groupe Bazano
FT
0 – 1
Motema Pembe
Motema Pembe
11/10/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 6Stade du TP Mazembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Groupe Bazano34%
×Draw29%
Motema Pembe37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Groupe Bazano
1.11
Motema Pembe
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 83 away

creates per match

Groupe Bazano
1.28
Motema Pembe
1.14

allows per match

Groupe Bazano
1.19
Motema Pembe
0.94

finishing

Groupe Bazano+0.00on par
Motema Pembe+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groupe Bazano ↓

Motema Pembe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Groupe Bazano or draw
63%
Groupe Bazano or Motema Pembe
71%
Draw or Motema Pembe
66%

Winning margin

Groupe Bazano wins by 2+
14%
Motema Pembe wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Groupe Bazano 1+ goals
67%
Groupe Bazano 2+ goals
30%
Groupe Bazano 3+ goals
10%
Motema Pembe 1+ goals
69%
Motema Pembe 2+ goals
33%
Motema Pembe 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Groupe Bazano (draw refunded)
48%
Motema Pembe (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groupe Bazano at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.19 · 75 matches

Motema Pembe away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.94 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groupe Bazano attack 1.28 + Motema Pembe defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.11

Motema Pembe attack 1.14 + Groupe Bazano defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Groupe Bazano scores more
34%
level
29%
Motema Pembe scores more
37%

Motema Pembe at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Motema Pembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Groupe Bazano vs Motema Pembe

Motema Pembe beat Groupe Bazano 1-0 in Ligue 1 on November 10, 2020.

The match was played at Stade du TP Mazembe in Lubumbashi.