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Groupe Bazano vs AS New Soger — Ligue 1 2019

Groupe Bazano
Groupe Bazano
FT
3 – 1
AS New Soger
AS New Soger
4/10/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Groupe Bazano51%
×Draw28%
AS New Soger20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Groupe Bazano
1.34
AS New Soger
0.73

Groupe Bazano creates 84% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 15 away

creates per match

Groupe Bazano
1.28
AS New Soger
0.27

allows per match

Groupe Bazano
1.19
AS New Soger
1.40

finishing

Groupe Bazano+0.00on par
AS New Soger+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groupe Bazano ↓

AS New Soger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Groupe Bazano or draw
80%
Groupe Bazano or AS New Soger
72%
Draw or AS New Soger
49%

Winning margin

Groupe Bazano wins by 2+
25%
AS New Soger wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Groupe Bazano 1+ goals
74%
Groupe Bazano 2+ goals
39%
Groupe Bazano 3+ goals
15%
AS New Soger 1+ goals
52%
AS New Soger 2+ goals
17%
AS New Soger 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Groupe Bazano (draw refunded)
72%
AS New Soger (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groupe Bazano at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.19 · 75 matches

AS New Soger away — creates 0.27, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groupe Bazano attack 1.28 + AS New Soger defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.34

AS New Soger attack 0.27 + Groupe Bazano defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Groupe Bazano scores more
51%
level
28%
AS New Soger scores more
20%

Groupe Bazano at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Groupe Bazano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Groupe Bazano 3–1 AS New Soger

Groupe Bazano beat AS New Soger 3-1 in Ligue 1 on April 10, 2026.