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Grotta vs Vestri — League #168 2026

Grotta
Grotta
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Vestri
Vestri
G. Jakobsson 45+1', 10'
T. Shihab 15'
3/25/2024League #168League #168 · Group Stage - 5Vivaldivöllurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Grotta44%
×Draw23%
Vestri34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grotta
1.83
Vestri
1.58

Grotta creates 16% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Grotta
1.67
Vestri
1.50

allows per match

Grotta
1.67
Vestri
2.00

finishing

Grotta+0.00on par
Vestri+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grotta ↓

Vestri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Grotta or draw
66%
Grotta or Vestri
77%
Draw or Vestri
56%

Winning margin

Grotta wins by 2+
24%
Vestri wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Grotta 1+ goals
84%
Grotta 2+ goals
54%
Grotta 3+ goals
28%
Vestri 1+ goals
79%
Vestri 2+ goals
47%
Vestri 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Grotta (draw refunded)
57%
Vestri (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grotta at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Vestri away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grotta attack 1.67 + Vestri defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Vestri attack 1.50 + Grotta defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Grotta scores more
44%
level
23%
Vestri scores more
34%

Grotta at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Grotta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
G. Jakobsson
15'
T. Shihab
31'
E. Sigurbjornsson
39'
P. Bjarnason
41'
T. Shihab
45+1'
G. Jakobsson
61'
61'
81'
G. Jakobsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #168: Grotta 3–0 Vestri

Grotta beat Vestri 3-0 in League #168 on March 25, 2024.

Goals: G. Jakobsson (10', 45+1'), T. Shihab (15').

The match was played at Vivaldivöllurinn in Seltjarnarnes.