Grotta 2–1 Kórdrengir: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

Grotta

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kórdrengir

8/19/2021

1. Deild · Round 17Vivaldivöllurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Grotta43%

×Draw22%

Kórdrengir34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrottaExpected goals in this matchKórdrengir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.64

Grotta

1.86

Kórdrengir

1.64

Grotta creates 13% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 22 away

2.27

creates per match

1.59

1.69

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Grotta

2.27

Kórdrengir

1.59

allows per match

Grotta

1.69

Kórdrengir

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grotta+0.00on par

Kórdrengir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grotta ↓

Kórdrengir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Grotta or draw

66%

Grotta or Kórdrengir

78%

Draw or Kórdrengir

57%

Winning margin

Grotta wins by 2+

23%

Kórdrengir wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Grotta 1+ goals

84%

Grotta 2+ goals

55%

Grotta 3+ goals

28%

Kórdrengir 1+ goals

81%

Kórdrengir 2+ goals

49%

Kórdrengir 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Grotta (draw refunded)

56%

Kórdrengir (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grotta at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.69 · 62 matches

Kórdrengir away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grotta attack 2.27 + Kórdrengir defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.86

Kórdrengir attack 1.59 + Grotta defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Grotta scores more

43%

level

22%

Kórdrengir scores more

34%

Grotta at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Grotta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff