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Grotta vs Fjardabyggd — 2. Deild 2018

Grotta
Grotta
FT
6 – 0
Fjardabyggd
Fjardabyggd
7/7/20182. Deild2. Deild · Round 10Vivaldivöllurinn (Seltjarnarnes)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Grotta67%
×Draw18%
Fjardabyggd15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grotta
2.46
Fjardabyggd
1.09

Grotta creates 126% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 43 away

creates per match

Grotta
2.73
Fjardabyggd
1.00

allows per match

Grotta
1.18
Fjardabyggd
2.19

finishing

Grotta+0.00on par
Fjardabyggd+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grotta ↓

Fjardabyggd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Grotta or draw
85%
Grotta or Fjardabyggd
82%
Draw or Fjardabyggd
33%

Winning margin

Grotta wins by 2+
45%
Fjardabyggd wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Grotta 1+ goals
91%
Grotta 2+ goals
70%
Grotta 3+ goals
44%
Fjardabyggd 1+ goals
66%
Fjardabyggd 2+ goals
30%
Fjardabyggd 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Grotta (draw refunded)
81%
Fjardabyggd (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grotta at home — creates 2.73, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

Fjardabyggd away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grotta attack 2.73 + Fjardabyggd defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.46

Fjardabyggd attack 1.00 + Grotta defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Grotta scores more
67%
level
18%
Fjardabyggd scores more
15%

Grotta at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Grotta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grotta vs Fjardabyggd

Grotta beat Fjardabyggd 6-0 in 2. Deild on July 7, 2018.

The match was played at Vivaldivöllurinn (Seltjarnarnes).