Grorud 4–3 Øygarden: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Grorud

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Øygarden

9/28/2020

1. Division · Round 18Grorud stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Grorud53%

×Draw20%

Øygarden27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrorudExpected goals in this matchØygarden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

1.58

Grorud

2.26

Øygarden

1.58

Grorud creates 43% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 15 away

1.46

creates per match

1.33

1.83

allows per match

3.07

creates per match

Grorud

1.46

Øygarden

1.33

allows per match

Grorud

1.83

Øygarden

3.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grorud+0.00on par

Øygarden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grorud ↓

Øygarden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Grorud or draw

73%

Grorud or Øygarden

80%

Draw or Øygarden

47%

Winning margin

Grorud wins by 2+

32%

Øygarden wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Grorud 1+ goals

89%

Grorud 2+ goals

66%

Grorud 3+ goals

39%

Øygarden 1+ goals

79%

Øygarden 2+ goals

47%

Øygarden 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Grorud (draw refunded)

66%

Øygarden (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grorud at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.83 · 46 matches

Øygarden away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grorud attack 1.46 + Øygarden defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.26

Øygarden attack 1.33 + Grorud defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Grorud scores more

53%

level

20%

Øygarden scores more

27%

Grorud at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Grorud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff