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Grorud vs Senja — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Grorud
Grorud
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Senja
Senja
6/16/20192. Division - Group 22. Division - Group 2 · Round 10Grorud stadion (Oslo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Grorud67%
×Draw18%
Senja15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grorud
2.48
Senja
1.09

Grorud creates 128% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 13 away

creates per match

Grorud
2.58
Senja
0.77

allows per match

Grorud
1.42
Senja
2.38

finishing

Grorud+0.00on par
Senja+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grorud ↓

Senja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Grorud or draw
85%
Grorud or Senja
82%
Draw or Senja
33%

Winning margin

Grorud wins by 2+
45%
Senja wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Grorud 1+ goals
92%
Grorud 2+ goals
70%
Grorud 3+ goals
44%
Senja 1+ goals
66%
Senja 2+ goals
30%
Senja 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Grorud (draw refunded)
82%
Senja (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grorud at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.42 · 45 matches

Senja away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grorud attack 2.58 + Senja defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.48

Senja attack 0.77 + Grorud defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Grorud scores more
67%
level
18%
Senja scores more
15%

Grorud at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Grorud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Division - Group 2: Grorud 2–1 Senja

Grorud beat Senja 2-1 in 2. Division - Group 2 on June 16, 2019.

The match was played at Grorud stadion (Oslo).