Grorud 0–4 Ørn Horten: Result & Stats

Grorud

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Ørn Horten

5/7/2023

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Grorud stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Grorud49%

×Draw25%

Ørn Horten25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrorudExpected goals in this matchØrn Horten

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.06

Grorud

1.58

Ørn Horten

1.06

Grorud creates 49% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 39 away

1.31

creates per match

1.05

1.08

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Grorud

1.31

Ørn Horten

1.05

allows per match

Grorud

1.08

Ørn Horten

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grorud+0.00on par

Ørn Horten+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grorud ↓

Ørn Horten →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Grorud or draw

75%

Grorud or Ørn Horten

75%

Draw or Ørn Horten

51%

Winning margin

Grorud wins by 2+

26%

Ørn Horten wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Grorud 1+ goals

79%

Grorud 2+ goals

47%

Grorud 3+ goals

21%

Ørn Horten 1+ goals

65%

Ørn Horten 2+ goals

29%

Ørn Horten 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Grorud (draw refunded)

66%

Ørn Horten (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grorud at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Ørn Horten away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.85 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grorud attack 1.31 + Ørn Horten defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.58

Ørn Horten attack 1.05 + Grorud defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Grorud scores more

49%

level

25%

Ørn Horten scores more

25%

Grorud at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Grorud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff