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Grorud II vs Raufoss II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Grorud II
Grorud II
CANC
14:00
Raufoss II
Raufoss II
9/5/20203. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 5Grorud stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Grorud II49%
×Draw21%
Raufoss II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grorud II
2.04
Raufoss II
1.55

Grorud II creates 32% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 7 away

creates per match

Grorud II
1.50
Raufoss II
1.14

allows per match

Grorud II
1.97
Raufoss II
2.57

finishing

Grorud II+0.00on par
Raufoss II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grorud II ↓

Raufoss II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Grorud II or draw
70%
Grorud II or Raufoss II
79%
Draw or Raufoss II
51%

Winning margin

Grorud II wins by 2+
28%
Raufoss II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Grorud II 1+ goals
87%
Grorud II 2+ goals
60%
Grorud II 3+ goals
33%
Raufoss II 1+ goals
79%
Raufoss II 2+ goals
46%
Raufoss II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Grorud II (draw refunded)
62%
Raufoss II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grorud II at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.97 · 32 matches

Raufoss II away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grorud II attack 1.50 + Raufoss II defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.04

Raufoss II attack 1.14 + Grorud II defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Grorud II scores more
49%
level
21%
Raufoss II scores more
30%

Grorud II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Grorud II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Grorud II host Raufoss II

September 5, 2020: Grorud II take on Raufoss II in 3. Division - Girone 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Grorud II host Raufoss II at Grorud stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.