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Grorud II vs Lokomotiv Oslo — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Grorud II
Grorud II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Lokomotiv Oslo
Lokomotiv Oslo
10/16/20223. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 25Grorud stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Grorud II41%
×Draw22%
Lokomotiv Oslo37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grorud II
1.82
Lokomotiv Oslo
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 33 away

creates per match

Grorud II
1.50
Lokomotiv Oslo
1.48

allows per match

Grorud II
1.97
Lokomotiv Oslo
2.15

finishing

Grorud II+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Oslo+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grorud II ↓

Lokomotiv Oslo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Grorud II or draw
63%
Grorud II or Lokomotiv Oslo
78%
Draw or Lokomotiv Oslo
59%

Winning margin

Grorud II wins by 2+
22%
Lokomotiv Oslo wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Grorud II 1+ goals
84%
Grorud II 2+ goals
54%
Grorud II 3+ goals
27%
Lokomotiv Oslo 1+ goals
82%
Lokomotiv Oslo 2+ goals
52%
Lokomotiv Oslo 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Grorud II (draw refunded)
52%
Lokomotiv Oslo (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grorud II at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.97 · 32 matches

Lokomotiv Oslo away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.15 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grorud II attack 1.50 + Lokomotiv Oslo defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.82

Lokomotiv Oslo attack 1.48 + Grorud II defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Grorud II scores more
41%
level
22%
Lokomotiv Oslo scores more
37%

Grorud II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Grorud II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grorud II vs Lokomotiv Oslo

Grorud II beat Lokomotiv Oslo 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Grorud stadion in Oslo.