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Grorud II vs Lillestrøm II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Grorud II
Grorud II
FT
1 – 3
Lillestrøm II
Lillestrøm II
4/24/20233. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 3Grorud stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Grorud II50%
×Draw20%
Lillestrøm II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grorud II
2.38
Lillestrøm II
1.81

Grorud II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 20 away

creates per match

Grorud II
1.50
Lillestrøm II
1.65

allows per match

Grorud II
1.97
Lillestrøm II
3.25

finishing

Grorud II+0.00on par
Lillestrøm II+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grorud II ↓

Lillestrøm II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Grorud II or draw
70%
Grorud II or Lillestrøm II
80%
Draw or Lillestrøm II
50%

Winning margin

Grorud II wins by 2+
31%
Lillestrøm II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Grorud II 1+ goals
91%
Grorud II 2+ goals
68%
Grorud II 3+ goals
42%
Lillestrøm II 1+ goals
84%
Lillestrøm II 2+ goals
54%
Lillestrøm II 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Grorud II (draw refunded)
63%
Lillestrøm II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grorud II at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.97 · 32 matches

Lillestrøm II away — creates 1.65, concedes 3.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grorud II attack 1.50 + Lillestrøm II defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.38

Lillestrøm II attack 1.65 + Grorud II defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Grorud II scores more
50%
level
20%
Lillestrøm II scores more
30%

Grorud II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Grorud II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grorud II vs Lillestrøm II

Lillestrøm II beat Grorud II 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on April 24, 2023.

The match was played at Grorud stadion in Oslo.