Grorud II 1–2 Kjelsås II: Result & Stats

Grorud II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Kjelsås II

9/6/2022

3. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 19Grorud stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Grorud II39%

×Draw25%

Kjelsås II36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Grorud IIExpected goals in this matchKjelsås II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.37

Grorud II

1.44

Kjelsås II

1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 13 away

1.50

creates per match

0.77

1.97

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Grorud II

1.50

Kjelsås II

0.77

allows per match

Grorud II

1.97

Kjelsås II

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grorud II+0.00on par

Kjelsås II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grorud II ↓

Kjelsås II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Grorud II or draw

64%

Grorud II or Kjelsås II

75%

Draw or Kjelsås II

61%

Winning margin

Grorud II wins by 2+

18%

Kjelsås II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Grorud II 1+ goals

76%

Grorud II 2+ goals

42%

Grorud II 3+ goals

18%

Kjelsås II 1+ goals

75%

Kjelsås II 2+ goals

40%

Kjelsås II 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Grorud II (draw refunded)

52%

Kjelsås II (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grorud II at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.97 · 32 matches

Kjelsås II away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grorud II attack 1.50 + Kjelsås II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Kjelsås II attack 0.77 + Grorud II defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Grorud II scores more

39%

level

25%

Kjelsås II scores more

36%

Grorud II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Grorud II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff