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Grorud II vs IF Ready — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Grorud II
Grorud II
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
IF Ready
IF Ready
E. Aarflot 87', 10'
F. Finnoy 40'
T. K. Etholm 27'
J. Holmlund 56'
Tveter 55'
5/31/20223. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 8Grorud stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Grorud II44%
×Draw22%
IF Ready34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grorud II
1.94
IF Ready
1.67

Grorud II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 19 away

creates per match

Grorud II
1.50
IF Ready
1.37

allows per match

Grorud II
1.97
IF Ready
2.37

finishing

Grorud II+0.00on par
IF Ready+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grorud II ↓

IF Ready →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Grorud II or draw
66%
Grorud II or IF Ready
78%
Draw or IF Ready
56%

Winning margin

Grorud II wins by 2+
25%
IF Ready wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Grorud II 1+ goals
86%
Grorud II 2+ goals
58%
Grorud II 3+ goals
30%
IF Ready 1+ goals
81%
IF Ready 2+ goals
50%
IF Ready 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Grorud II (draw refunded)
57%
IF Ready (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grorud II at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.97 · 32 matches

IF Ready away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grorud II attack 1.50 + IF Ready defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.94

IF Ready attack 1.37 + Grorud II defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Grorud II scores more
44%
level
22%
IF Ready scores more
34%

Grorud II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Grorud II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
E. Aarflot
27'
T. K. Etholm
40'
F. Finnoy
55'
Tveter
56'
J. Holmlund
87'
E. Aarflot

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grorud II vs IF Ready

Grorud II beat IF Ready 4-2 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on May 31, 2022.

Goals: E. Aarflot (10', 87'), T. K. Etholm (27'), F. Finnoy (40'), Tveter (55'), J. Holmlund (56').

The match was played at Grorud stadion in Oslo.