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Grorud II vs Gjelleråsen — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Grorud II
Grorud II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Gjelleråsen
Gjelleråsen
9/5/20233. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 18Grorud stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Grorud II31%
×Draw21%
Gjelleråsen48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grorud II
1.63
Gjelleråsen
2.08

Gjelleråsen creates 28% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 20 away

creates per match

Grorud II
1.50
Gjelleråsen
2.20

allows per match

Grorud II
1.97
Gjelleråsen
1.75

finishing

Grorud II+0.00on par
Gjelleråsen+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grorud II ↓

Gjelleråsen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Grorud II or draw
52%
Grorud II or Gjelleråsen
79%
Draw or Gjelleråsen
69%

Winning margin

Grorud II wins by 2+
15%
Gjelleråsen wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Grorud II 1+ goals
80%
Grorud II 2+ goals
48%
Grorud II 3+ goals
22%
Gjelleråsen 1+ goals
87%
Gjelleråsen 2+ goals
61%
Gjelleråsen 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Grorud II (draw refunded)
39%
Gjelleråsen (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grorud II at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.97 · 32 matches

Gjelleråsen away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.75 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grorud II attack 1.50 + Gjelleråsen defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.63

Gjelleråsen attack 2.20 + Grorud II defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Grorud II scores more
31%
level
21%
Gjelleråsen scores more
48%

Gjelleråsen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gjelleråsen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Grorud II 1–3 Gjelleråsen

Gjelleråsen beat Grorud II 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on September 5, 2023.

The match was played at Grorud stadion in Oslo.