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Grorud II vs Fana — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Grorud II
Grorud II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Fana
Fana
9/24/20233. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 21Grorud stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Grorud II32%
×Draw21%
Fana47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grorud II
1.75
Fana
2.14

Fana creates 22% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 26 away

creates per match

Grorud II
1.50
Fana
2.31

allows per match

Grorud II
1.97
Fana
2.00

finishing

Grorud II+0.00on par
Fana+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grorud II ↓

Fana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Grorud II or draw
53%
Grorud II or Fana
79%
Draw or Fana
68%

Winning margin

Grorud II wins by 2+
16%
Fana wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Grorud II 1+ goals
83%
Grorud II 2+ goals
52%
Grorud II 3+ goals
25%
Fana 1+ goals
88%
Fana 2+ goals
63%
Fana 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Grorud II (draw refunded)
41%
Fana (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grorud II at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.97 · 32 matches

Fana away — creates 2.31, concedes 2.00 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grorud II attack 1.50 + Fana defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Fana attack 2.31 + Grorud II defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Grorud II scores more
32%
level
21%
Fana scores more
47%

Fana at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Grorud II 0–2 Fana

Fana beat Grorud II 2-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Grorud stadion in Oslo.