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Groningen vs Telstar — Eerste Divisie 2018

Groningen
Groningen
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Telstar
Telstar
12/8/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 18Euroborg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Groningen58%
×Draw23%
Telstar19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Groningen
1.84
Telstar
0.96

Groningen creates 92% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 130 away

creates per match

Groningen
2.00
Telstar
1.18

allows per match

Groningen
0.74
Telstar
1.69

finishing

Groningen+0.00on par
Telstar+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groningen ↓

Telstar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Groningen or draw
81%
Groningen or Telstar
77%
Draw or Telstar
42%

Winning margin

Groningen wins by 2+
33%
Telstar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Groningen 1+ goals
84%
Groningen 2+ goals
55%
Groningen 3+ goals
28%
Telstar 1+ goals
62%
Telstar 2+ goals
25%
Telstar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Groningen (draw refunded)
75%
Telstar (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groningen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

Telstar away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.69 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groningen attack 2.00 + Telstar defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.84

Telstar attack 1.18 + Groningen defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Groningen scores more
58%
level
23%
Telstar scores more
19%

Groningen at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Groningen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Groningen vs Telstar

Groningen beat Telstar 2-0 in Eerste Divisie on December 8, 2023.

The match was played at Euroborg in Groningen.