Groningen 2–1 Jong Utrecht: Result & Stats

Groningen

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Jong Utrecht

12/22/2023

Eerste Divisie · Round 20Euroborg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Groningen64%

×Draw20%

Jong Utrecht16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GroningenExpected goals in this matchJong Utrecht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.91

Groningen

2.08

Jong Utrecht

0.91

Groningen creates 129% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 147 away

2.00

creates per match

1.07

0.74

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Groningen

2.00

Jong Utrecht

1.07

allows per match

Groningen

0.74

Jong Utrecht

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Groningen+0.00on par

Jong Utrecht+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groningen ↓

Jong Utrecht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Groningen or draw

84%

Groningen or Jong Utrecht

80%

Draw or Jong Utrecht

36%

Winning margin

Groningen wins by 2+

40%

Jong Utrecht wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Groningen 1+ goals

87%

Groningen 2+ goals

61%

Groningen 3+ goals

34%

Jong Utrecht 1+ goals

60%

Jong Utrecht 2+ goals

23%

Jong Utrecht 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Groningen (draw refunded)

80%

Jong Utrecht (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groningen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

Jong Utrecht away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.16 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groningen attack 2.00 + Jong Utrecht defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.08

Jong Utrecht attack 1.07 + Groningen defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Groningen scores more

64%

level

20%

Jong Utrecht scores more

16%

Groningen at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Groningen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff