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Groningen vs Jong PSV U21 — Eerste Divisie 2018

Groningen
Groningen
FT
4 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Jong PSV U21
Jong PSV U21
9/18/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 5Euroborg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Groningen58%
×Draw21%
Jong PSV U2121%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Groningen
2.03
Jong PSV U21
1.13

Groningen creates 80% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 149 away

creates per match

Groningen
2.00
Jong PSV U21
1.52

allows per match

Groningen
0.74
Jong PSV U21
2.06

finishing

Groningen+0.00on par
Jong PSV U21+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groningen ↓

Jong PSV U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Groningen or draw
79%
Groningen or Jong PSV U21
79%
Draw or Jong PSV U21
42%

Winning margin

Groningen wins by 2+
35%
Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Groningen 1+ goals
87%
Groningen 2+ goals
60%
Groningen 3+ goals
33%
Jong PSV U21 1+ goals
68%
Jong PSV U21 2+ goals
31%
Jong PSV U21 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Groningen (draw refunded)
74%
Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groningen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

Jong PSV U21 away — creates 1.52, concedes 2.06 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groningen attack 2.00 + Jong PSV U21 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.03

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.52 + Groningen defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Groningen scores more
58%
level
21%
Jong PSV U21 scores more
21%

Groningen at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Groningen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Groningen vs Jong PSV U21

Groningen beat Jong PSV U21 4-0 in Eerste Divisie on September 18, 2023.

The match was played at Euroborg in Groningen.