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Groningen vs Jong Ajax — Eerste Divisie 2018

Groningen
Groningen
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Jong Ajax
Jong Ajax
8/11/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 1Euroborg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Groningen58%
×Draw21%
Jong Ajax21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Groningen
2.01
Jong Ajax
1.11

Groningen creates 81% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 148 away

creates per match

Groningen
2.00
Jong Ajax
1.48

allows per match

Groningen
0.74
Jong Ajax
2.03

finishing

Groningen+0.00on par
Jong Ajax+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groningen ↓

Jong Ajax →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Groningen or draw
79%
Groningen or Jong Ajax
79%
Draw or Jong Ajax
42%

Winning margin

Groningen wins by 2+
35%
Jong Ajax wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Groningen 1+ goals
87%
Groningen 2+ goals
59%
Groningen 3+ goals
32%
Jong Ajax 1+ goals
67%
Jong Ajax 2+ goals
30%
Jong Ajax 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Groningen (draw refunded)
74%
Jong Ajax (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groningen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

Jong Ajax away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.03 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groningen attack 2.00 + Jong Ajax defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.01

Jong Ajax attack 1.48 + Groningen defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Groningen scores more
58%
level
21%
Jong Ajax scores more
21%

Groningen at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Groningen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Groningen 4–1 Jong Ajax

Groningen beat Jong Ajax 4-1 in Eerste Divisie on August 11, 2023.

The match was played at Euroborg in Groningen.