Groningen 0–0 Helmond Sport: Result & Stats

Groningen

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Helmond Sport

2/23/2024

Eerste Divisie · Round 27Euroborg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Groningen64%

×Draw21%

Helmond Sport15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GroningenExpected goals in this matchHelmond Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.82

Groningen

1.98

Helmond Sport

0.82

Groningen creates 141% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 147 away

2.00

creates per match

0.90

0.74

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Groningen

2.00

Helmond Sport

0.90

allows per match

Groningen

0.74

Helmond Sport

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Groningen+0.00on par

Helmond Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groningen ↓

Helmond Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Groningen or draw

85%

Groningen or Helmond Sport

79%

Draw or Helmond Sport

36%

Winning margin

Groningen wins by 2+

39%

Helmond Sport wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Groningen 1+ goals

86%

Groningen 2+ goals

59%

Groningen 3+ goals

31%

Helmond Sport 1+ goals

56%

Helmond Sport 2+ goals

20%

Helmond Sport 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Groningen (draw refunded)

81%

Helmond Sport (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groningen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

Helmond Sport away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.95 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groningen attack 2.00 + Helmond Sport defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.98

Helmond Sport attack 0.90 + Groningen defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Groningen scores more

64%

level

21%

Helmond Sport scores more

15%

Groningen at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Groningen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff