Groningen 1–0 Fortuna Sittard: Result & Stats

Groningen

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fortuna Sittard

3/16/2025

Eredivisie · Round 26Euroborg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Groningen48%

×Draw24%

Fortuna Sittard28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GroningenExpected goals in this matchFortuna Sittard

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.22

Groningen

1.69

Fortuna Sittard

1.22

Groningen creates 39% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 18 away

1.28

creates per match

0.90

1.53

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Groningen

1.28

Fortuna Sittard

0.90

allows per match

Groningen

1.53

Fortuna Sittard

2.10

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

Groningen+0.12scores more

Fortuna Sittard+0.27scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groningen ↓

Fortuna Sittard →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Groningen or draw

72%

Groningen or Fortuna Sittard

76%

Draw or Fortuna Sittard

52%

Winning margin

Groningen wins by 2+

26%

Fortuna Sittard wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Groningen 1+ goals

82%

Groningen 2+ goals

50%

Groningen 3+ goals

24%

Fortuna Sittard 1+ goals

70%

Fortuna Sittard 2+ goals

34%

Fortuna Sittard 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Groningen (draw refunded)

64%

Fortuna Sittard (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groningen at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.53 · 10 matches

Fortuna Sittard away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.10 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groningen attack 1.28 + Fortuna Sittard defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.69

Fortuna Sittard attack 0.90 + Groningen defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Groningen scores more

48%

level

24%

Fortuna Sittard scores more

28%

Groningen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Groningen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff