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Groningen U21 vs Sittard U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

Groningen U21
Groningen U21
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sittard U21
Sittard U21
3/21/2026U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Groningen U2168%
×Draw19%
Sittard U2113%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Groningen U21
2.22
Sittard U21
0.86

Groningen U21 creates 158% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 7 away

creates per match

Groningen U21
1.88
Sittard U21
0.57

allows per match

Groningen U21
1.16
Sittard U21
2.57

finishing

Groningen U21+0.00on par
Sittard U21+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groningen U21 ↓

Sittard U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Groningen U21 or draw
87%
Groningen U21 or Sittard U21
81%
Draw or Sittard U21
32%

Winning margin

Groningen U21 wins by 2+
44%
Sittard U21 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Groningen U21 1+ goals
89%
Groningen U21 2+ goals
65%
Groningen U21 3+ goals
38%
Sittard U21 1+ goals
58%
Sittard U21 2+ goals
21%
Sittard U21 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Groningen U21 (draw refunded)
84%
Sittard U21 (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groningen U21 at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.16 · 69 matches

Sittard U21 away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groningen U21 attack 1.88 + Sittard U21 defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.22

Sittard U21 attack 0.57 + Groningen U21 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Groningen U21 scores more
68%
level
19%
Sittard U21 scores more
13%

Groningen U21 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Groningen U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Groningen U21 vs Sittard U21

Sittard U21 beat Groningen U21 1-0 in U21 Divisie 1 on March 21, 2026.