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Groningen U21 vs Heerenveen U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

Groningen U21
Groningen U21
FT
3 – 2
Heerenveen U21
Heerenveen U21
11/30/2021U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Fall Season - 9Sportpark Corpus den Hoorn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Groningen U2157%
×Draw22%
Heerenveen U2121%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Groningen U21
1.94
Heerenveen U21
1.08

Groningen U21 creates 80% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 9 away

creates per match

Groningen U21
1.88
Heerenveen U21
1.00

allows per match

Groningen U21
1.16
Heerenveen U21
2.00

finishing

Groningen U21+0.00on par
Heerenveen U21+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groningen U21 ↓

Heerenveen U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Groningen U21 or draw
79%
Groningen U21 or Heerenveen U21
78%
Draw or Heerenveen U21
43%

Winning margin

Groningen U21 wins by 2+
34%
Heerenveen U21 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Groningen U21 1+ goals
86%
Groningen U21 2+ goals
58%
Groningen U21 3+ goals
30%
Heerenveen U21 1+ goals
66%
Heerenveen U21 2+ goals
29%
Heerenveen U21 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Groningen U21 (draw refunded)
73%
Heerenveen U21 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groningen U21 at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.16 · 69 matches

Heerenveen U21 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groningen U21 attack 1.88 + Heerenveen U21 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Heerenveen U21 attack 1.00 + Groningen U21 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Groningen U21 scores more
57%
level
22%
Heerenveen U21 scores more
21%

Groningen U21 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Groningen U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U21 Divisie 1: Groningen U21 3–2 Heerenveen U21

Groningen U21 beat Heerenveen U21 3-2 in U21 Divisie 1 on November 30, 2021.

The match was played at Sportpark Corpus den Hoorn in Groningen.