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Groene Ster vs OFC Oostzaan — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Groene Ster
Groene Ster
CANC
12:30
OFC Oostzaan
OFC Oostzaan
4/11/2021Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Groene Ster36%
×Draw23%
OFC Oostzaan40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Groene Ster
1.56
OFC Oostzaan
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 31 away

creates per match

Groene Ster
1.52
OFC Oostzaan
1.74

allows per match

Groene Ster
1.56
OFC Oostzaan
1.61

finishing

Groene Ster+0.00on par
OFC Oostzaan+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groene Ster ↓

OFC Oostzaan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Groene Ster or draw
60%
Groene Ster or OFC Oostzaan
77%
Draw or OFC Oostzaan
64%

Winning margin

Groene Ster wins by 2+
18%
OFC Oostzaan wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Groene Ster 1+ goals
79%
Groene Ster 2+ goals
46%
Groene Ster 3+ goals
21%
OFC Oostzaan 1+ goals
81%
OFC Oostzaan 2+ goals
49%
OFC Oostzaan 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Groene Ster (draw refunded)
48%
OFC Oostzaan (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groene Ster at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.56 · 82 matches

OFC Oostzaan away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groene Ster attack 1.52 + OFC Oostzaan defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.56

OFC Oostzaan attack 1.74 + Groene Ster defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Groene Ster scores more
36%
level
23%
OFC Oostzaan scores more
40%

OFC Oostzaan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "OFC Oostzaan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Groene Ster face OFC Oostzaan (Derde Divisie - Sunday)

Derde Divisie - Sunday returns with Groene Ster hosting OFC Oostzaan. Match starts April 11, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.