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Grödig vs Union Henndorf — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Grödig
Grödig
FT
3 – 0
Union Henndorf
Union Henndorf
8/11/2023Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 2MGG Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Grödig72%
×Draw15%
Union Henndorf12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grödig
2.77
Union Henndorf
1.07

Grödig creates 159% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

Grödig
2.67
Union Henndorf
1.33

allows per match

Grödig
0.82
Union Henndorf
2.87

finishing

Grödig+0.00on par
Union Henndorf+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grödig ↓

Union Henndorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Grödig or draw
88%
Grödig or Union Henndorf
85%
Draw or Union Henndorf
28%

Winning margin

Grödig wins by 2+
51%
Union Henndorf wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Grödig 1+ goals
94%
Grödig 2+ goals
76%
Grödig 3+ goals
51%
Union Henndorf 1+ goals
66%
Union Henndorf 2+ goals
29%
Union Henndorf 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Grödig (draw refunded)
85%
Union Henndorf (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grödig at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.82 · 45 matches

Union Henndorf away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grödig attack 2.67 + Union Henndorf defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.77

Union Henndorf attack 1.33 + Grödig defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Grödig scores more
72%
level
15%
Union Henndorf scores more
12%

Grödig at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Grödig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Salzburg: Grödig 3–0 Union Henndorf

Grödig beat Union Henndorf 3-0 in Landesliga - Salzburg on August 11, 2023.

The match was played at MGG Arena in Grödig.