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Grödig vs Adnet — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Grödig
Grödig
FT
4 – 1
Adnet
Adnet
6/1/2024Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 29MGG Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Grödig67%
×Draw18%
Adnet15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grödig
2.38
Adnet
1.01

Grödig creates 136% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 52 away

creates per match

Grödig
2.67
Adnet
1.21

allows per match

Grödig
0.82
Adnet
2.08

finishing

Grödig+0.00on par
Adnet+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grödig ↓

Adnet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Grödig or draw
85%
Grödig or Adnet
82%
Draw or Adnet
33%

Winning margin

Grödig wins by 2+
45%
Adnet wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Grödig 1+ goals
91%
Grödig 2+ goals
68%
Grödig 3+ goals
42%
Adnet 1+ goals
64%
Adnet 2+ goals
27%
Adnet 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Grödig (draw refunded)
82%
Adnet (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grödig at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.82 · 45 matches

Adnet away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.08 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grödig attack 2.67 + Adnet defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.38

Adnet attack 1.21 + Grödig defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Grödig scores more
67%
level
18%
Adnet scores more
15%

Grödig at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Grödig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grödig vs Adnet

Grödig beat Adnet 4-1 in Landesliga - Salzburg on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at MGG Arena in Grödig.