Grobničan Čavle 2–3 Marsonia: Result & Stats

Grobničan Čavle

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Marsonia

D. Pilcic 37'

F. Bosancic 4'

M. Zuljevic 82', 63'

A. Kus 67'

8/31/2024

Second NL · Round 2Stadion Adelija Haramija Beba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Grobničan Čavle52%

×Draw21%

Marsonia26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Grobničan ČavleExpected goals in this matchMarsonia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.42

Grobničan Čavle

2.07

Marsonia

1.42

Grobničan Čavle creates 46% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 45 away

1.78

creates per match

1.36

1.48

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Grobničan Čavle

1.78

Marsonia

1.36

allows per match

Grobničan Čavle

1.48

Marsonia

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grobničan Čavle+0.00on par

Marsonia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grobničan Čavle ↓

Marsonia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Grobničan Čavle or draw

74%

Grobničan Čavle or Marsonia

79%

Draw or Marsonia

48%

Winning margin

Grobničan Čavle wins by 2+

31%

Marsonia wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Grobničan Čavle 1+ goals

87%

Grobničan Čavle 2+ goals

61%

Grobničan Čavle 3+ goals

34%

Marsonia 1+ goals

76%

Marsonia 2+ goals

41%

Marsonia 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Grobničan Čavle (draw refunded)

67%

Marsonia (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grobničan Čavle at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.48 · 60 matches

Marsonia away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.36 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grobničan Čavle attack 1.78 + Marsonia defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.07

Marsonia attack 1.36 + Grobničan Čavle defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Grobničan Čavle scores more

52%

level

21%

Marsonia scores more

26%

Grobničan Čavle at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Grobničan Čavle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

F. Bosancic

37'

D. Pilcic

63'

M. Zuljevic

67'

A. Kus

82'

M. Zuljevic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff